On October 28, 2026, the Federal Reserve held its target range at 3.75% to 4% in a 10-2 vote, with two members preferring a quarter-point hike. Bitcoin (BTC) briefly rose above $81,000, then slid below $80,000, and Ether (ETH) and XRP also fell. US spot Bitcoin ETFs saw $487.2 million of net outflows from October 22 to October 27, 2026.
Why did Bitcoin fall after the Fed held rates on October 28, 2026?
The Federal Open Market Committee kept the federal funds target range at 3-3/4 to 4 percent in a statement released at 2:00 p.m. EDT on October 28, 2026. The vote was 10-2. Governor Lisa D. Cook and Cleveland Fed President Beth M. Hammack dissented because they preferred to raise the range by 1/4 percentage point. The statement itself does not give their reasons.
CryptoSlate reported that Bitcoin dipped to $80,500 and recovered above $81,000 around the decision. By 03:34 UTC on October 29, 2026, Brave New Coin, using CoinPaprika data, put BTC near $79,732 (down 1.42% over 24 hours), ETH near $2,303 (down 2.09%) and XRP near $1.29 (down 3.03%). Those prices are as of that timestamp and will have moved since.
The same article quotes Fed Chair Kevin Warsh saying the economy was not running too hot, and says he did not commit to a December move. CryptoSlate adds that Warsh said credit conditions had tightened but declined to call financial conditions tight.
The decision sits in a run of events our desk has tracked:
| Date | Event | Figure |
|---|---|---|
| September 16, 2026 | FOMC raised the range | 3.75%-4.00% |
| October 22, 2026 | US spot BTC ETF net flow | -$635.6M |
| Oct 22 to 27, 2026 | US spot BTC ETF net flow | -$487.2M |
| October 28, 2026 | FOMC held the range | 10-2 vote |
The September 16 move is described in our Ethereum staking versus Treasury yields explainer. The October 22 outflow is covered in our post on Bitcoin falling below $81,000 as ETFs shed $635.6M. The $487.2 million figure is CryptoSlate's citation of Farside Investors data, and covers a different window, so the two flow numbers should not be added together.
Where analysts disagree
The named views do not clash on the Fed's decision itself. They differ on what is already priced in and where the market is exposed.
Fabian Dori, CIO of Sygnum Bank, called the outcome a "hawkish hold" that the market expected, with a quarter-point December hike already priced in, according to CryptoSlate. He pointed to the PCE inflation release on October 29, 2026 as the next check on the Fed's reasoning. His reading assumes the decision added little new information.
Brendan Ma, Head of Investment Strategy at the Arbitrum Foundation, reads the two dissents as keeping a December hike live, though most of it is already priced in, per the same report. He cited tokenized stocks rising about 12% while tokenized Treasuries shrank, over a one-month window the report does not date. His reading assumes the dissents matter more than the hold.
Matt Mena, Senior Crypto Research Strategist at 21shares, focused on price structure. He called $80,000 the key support to defend, with a break exposing $77,000 to $78,000 and potentially $75,800. Reclaiming $81,000 to $82,000 would open $84,000 to $85,000, then $87,000 to $87,500, according to the same CryptoSlate report. These are his levels, reported as his view and not as ours.
Taken together, Dori and Ma agree a hike is largely priced in and differ on how much the dissents add, while Mena's levels describe where that pricing could be tested. CryptoSlate also cited a December hike probability of about 83% to 88% from unnamed rate-market trackers, which could not be checked against a named source in this run.
Why it matters
Two dissents in favor of a hike mean the committee was not unanimous in standing still. The range was raised on September 16, 2026, and the October 28 vote leaves a further increase as a live question, which is what Ma and Dori both address. For Bitcoin and Ether, the channel is liquidity and positioning: higher policy rates raise the cost of leverage and compete with non-yielding assets.
The ETF side is a separate signal. Net outflows of $487.2 million across October 22 to October 27, 2026 mean US spot Bitcoin funds were net sellers in the days before the meeting, not buyers. Our comparison of Ether and Bitcoin ETF flows covers how uneven flows have been across the two assets in October.
One caution on cause: price moved in both directions within hours of the statement, so the post-decision slide cannot be attributed to the Fed alone. The sources cited here report the sequence, not a measured cause.
What to watch
- The PCE inflation release on October 29, 2026, which Dori named as the next check on the Fed's reasoning.
- Whether BTC holds $80,000, the level Mena called key support, and whether it reclaims $81,000 to $82,000.
- Daily US spot ETF flows, from Farside Investors or another flow tracker, for any reversal of the October 22 to 27 outflows.
- Warsh's guidance and the next FOMC statement, listed on the Federal Reserve's 2026 FOMC page.
Bottom line
- The FOMC held the target range at 3.75% to 4% on October 28, 2026, by a 10-2 vote.
- Cook and Hammack dissented in favor of a quarter-point hike.
- US spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded $487.2 million of net outflows from October 22 to October 27, 2026, per Farside data as reported by CryptoSlate.
- BTC traded near $79,732 at 03:34 UTC on October 29, 2026, after briefly rising above $81,000 around the decision.