Bitcoin (BTC) rose 3.5% to $80,500 and Ether (ETH) nearly 6% to $2,433 on the afternoon of November 4, 2026, according to The Block, as markets absorbed the US midterm result and Binance's reported $6.3 billion hack. BTC had touched a six-week low of $76,368 after the breach, per Reuters.
Why did Bitcoin rebound on November 4, 2026?
Two shocks landed in the same week. Binance reported a theft that Reuters put at $6.3 billion, with the bulk of the heist starting late on Thursday, October 29, 2026. Then the US midterms resolved on November 3, 2026, with a Democratic win that markets had largely priced in: CoinDesk reported Polymarket had priced a Democratic win above 75% before the result.
| Date | Event | BTC level |
|---|---|---|
| Oct 30, 2026 | Reuters reports Binance theft | Low of $76,368 |
| Nov 2, 2026 | Mid-afternoon, near session lows | $76,750 |
| Nov 4, 2026 (early) | Dip, then rebound | Below $76,000, then $78,300 |
| Nov 4, 2026 (afternoon) | The Block report | $80,500 |
The levels come from Reuters via Yahoo Finance, CoinDesk on November 2, CoinDesk on November 4 and The Block. They are different timestamps from different outlets, so they are not one continuous series.
The Block, citing Nexo, reported about $469 million of leveraged positions liquidated, a 27% rise in crypto futures volume and a 3% rise in open interest. Futures fell as much as 2.5% on early election counts before fully recovering. CoinDesk reported about $660 million notional in BTC options block trades on election day, with about $420 million of calls bought against about $105 million sold. Prices as of the afternoon of November 4, 2026.
What happened at Binance?
Reuters reported that the heist took about 20 minutes and that Tether froze nearly $1.57 billion and Circle more than $800 million. Binance said about $3 billion had been located, and did not address the remaining $3.3 billion. TRM Labs and Chainalysis told Reuters they were highly confident North Korea was responsible, while Binance co-CEO Richard Teng said the investigation had not attributed responsibility to any individual.
On October 31, 2026, CoinDesk reported that Binance said it had replaced 90% of the stolen crypto, funded from corporate treasury and part of its futures insurance fund (SAFU). Binance said it would absorb the loss, not its users, and that full cryptographic proof of reserves was due by November 3. This run did not confirm that the proof was published.
On November 2, 2026, CoinDesk's live blog headline cited $6 billion of Binance outflows after withdrawals restarted, described as less than 4% of total holdings. The article body did not verify that figure, so treat it as a headline claim. It is a withdrawal flow, not the stolen amount.
Where analysts disagree
Bitwise. CIO Matt Hougan argued, per The Block, that hacks matter only if no safer way to hold bitcoin exists, and that ETFs and cold storage provide one. Bitwise also noted that in the 10 largest crypto-related hacks, BTC was higher 30 days later in five cases and lower in five.
HashKey and Moody's. Tim Sun of HashKey told Reuters the hack could further dampen risk appetite and make investors reassess the safety of assets on centralized exchanges. Moody's Ratings said the wider implications depend on final losses, affected counterparties, asset recovery and whether confidence in digital assets erodes.
Chart readers. Markus Thielen of 10x Research said BTC was oversold on daily stochastics and could rally toward $82,000. Lacie Zhang of Bitget Wallet described the trend as consolidation below $80,000 to $82,000 resistance, and said a durable recovery needs steady spot and institutional demand.
The views are not strictly opposed. Bitwise reads the outcome so far (a roughly 4% drop after the breach, in line with broader risk assets, per The Block). HashKey and Moody's read what is still unresolved: final losses and counterparty exposure.
Why does the ETF flow picture matter?
Spot ETF demand is the gap in the rebound. CoinDesk, citing SoSoValue, reported $515 million of US spot Bitcoin ETF outflows in October 2026 and an equal amount in the first two trading days of November. On November 4, 2026, Farside Investors data relayed by blockchain.news showed a $74.6 million net inflow, with FBTC at $236.7 million inflow and IBIT at $201.2 million outflow.
Those two figures come from different providers, so compare them with care. Our post on why crypto data providers report different numbers explains how fund universe and session cut-offs differ. For earlier context on outflows, see our post on Bitcoin falling below $81,000 as ETFs shed $635.6M.
Giottus CEO Vikram Subburaj told CoinDesk that holding above $78,000 while ETF redemptions continue would suggest other buyers are absorbing supply. 21Shares strategist Matt Mena told The Block he is watching ETF inflows, Binance withdrawals and proof of reserves, credit spreads, oil and Treasury yields.
Why it matters
A custodial failure tests the argument that regulated wrappers and self-custody are safer than exchange balances. The market's response so far (a drawdown of about 4% per Bitwise, followed by a full recovery of the election-day dip in futures) suggests the loss was treated as an exchange-level event that Binance's balance sheet could absorb. That reading depends on Binance's replacement claims holding up, which rest on its own disclosures.
The election matters through policy. Dick Lo of TDX Strategies told CoinDesk a Democratic Congress is seen as less favorable for pro-crypto legislation, though divided government lowers the odds of major market-unfriendly shifts. For the legislative backdrop, see our post on which US crypto laws are moving after CLARITY failed 49 to 50.
What to watch
- Whether BTC holds $78,000 and then reclaims the $80,000 to $82,000 zone that analysts cite as resistance.
- Daily Farside net flows, and whether IBIT outflows keep offsetting inflows elsewhere.
- Binance's proof-of-reserves publication and the status of the unreplaced 10% of tokens.
- Further freezes or recoveries against the remaining $3.3 billion Binance had not located, per Reuters.
Bottom line
- BTC reached $80,500 and ETH $2,433 on November 4, 2026, per The Block, after a six-week low of $76,368 reported by Reuters.
- Reuters put the Binance theft at $6.3 billion; Binance said on October 31, 2026 that it had replaced 90% of the stolen crypto.
- US spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded a $74.6 million net inflow on November 4, 2026 (Farside), after $515 million of outflows in the first two trading days of November (SoSoValue).
- Analysts split on what is unresolved: Bitwise sees a muted reaction, while HashKey and Moody's point to losses and counterparty exposure still open.