US spot Bitcoin (BTC) ETFs lost a net $707.9 million over the three sessions ending October 9, 2026, per Farside Investors: $484.9 million on October 7, $244.1 million on October 8, then a $21.1 million inflow on October 9. BTC closed near $81,686 on October 8. US spot Ether (ETH) ETFs also lost $72.5 million on October 8.
What happened to Bitcoin ETF flows from October 7 to October 9, 2026?
Our post on the $484.9 million outflow of October 7 listed Farside's October 8 row as the next thing to check. Farside Investors now shows that row and the one after it, in US$ millions.
| Date | Net flow (US$m) | Largest fund move |
|---|---|---|
| October 6, 2026 | +118.8 | Not itemised here |
| October 7, 2026 | -484.9 | IBIT -207.7 |
| October 8, 2026 | -244.1 | FBTC -197.1 |
| October 9, 2026 | +21.1 | IBIT +22.4 |
The three-day total of -$707.9 million is derived from Farside's daily totals (-484.9, -244.1 and +21.1), with no rounding. The October 7 fund figure comes from The Block and the October 9 figure from Farside. The October 8 Fidelity figure of -$197.1 million is reported by The Coin Republic, citing Farside, which also says BlackRock's withdrawals that day were modest. Farside shows Fidelity's FBTC at -$3.6 million on October 9.
Adding Farside's seven October rows gives about -$386.3 million for the month through October 9 (derived). The October table at TFTC shows -$388.6 million. The $2.3 million gap is mostly one day: TFTC lists -$487.1 million for October 7, against -$484.9 million at Farside. This post treats Farside as the primary record. Neither page explains the gap.
The Coin Republic headline says $730 million, and its body does not reconcile that to daily totals. The Farside-derived figure here is -$707.9 million.
Ether funds followed Bitcoin lower. The Coin Republic, citing Farside, reports a $72.5 million Ether ETF outflow on October 8, led by BlackRock's ETHA at -$71.1 million. It puts the outflow streak since September 29 at eight sessions and about $641.3 million.
BTC closed near $81,686 on October 8, down from $83,282 on October 7, per CoinGecko data cited by The Coin Republic (as of October 8, 2026).
Where analysts disagree
The split is about what the flows say about the next leg, not about the figures.
QCP Capital holds a Q4 base case of $80,000 to $90,000. It calls $80,000 to $82,000 a buying zone and says it would reduce exposure near $88,000 to $90,000 if ETF inflows do not pick up. Its bull case above $100,000 lists sustained ETF inflows first. QCP is reading flows as a condition for upside, so two outflow days weigh on that path.
Glassnode reads thin demand in market data. It says seven-day average spot and ETF volume of about $6.8 billion a day was below roughly nine in ten trading days since January 2024. It flags a liquidation cluster at $81,700 to $83,300 and Binance bids at $81,000 to $81,250. That cluster sat just above the $81,686 close on October 8. Glassnode's reading assumes thin volume means weak conviction.
Kraken chief economist Thomas Perfumo, quoted by The Block, argues the cycle may bottom sooner than past ones. His evidence is a 54% drawdown to the July low, against 70% to 85% in earlier cycles, and he names long-term rates as the key variable. He does not make a call on ETF flows, so his view is about cycle depth, not demand.
Bitfinex analysts, cited by crypto.news, said ETF inflows fell roughly 90% from the prior week. That figure comes before the October 8 outflow and is not a Farside number.
Why it matters
ETF creations and redemptions are the cleanest daily read on US-listed spot demand. Three sessions with two large outflows and one small inflow show demand stalling, not reversing. The October 9 inflow of $21.1 million is small against the $244.1 million outflow of October 8.
Concentration changed from one day to the next. On October 7 the three largest outflows were IBIT, FBTC and ARKB. On October 8 the move was mostly one fund, FBTC. That is an observation about two tables, not a finding about cause. None of the sources read for this post gives a reason for the redemptions.
The flow-to-price link is not mechanical. Our post on September 23, 2026 found BTC falling on a $346.9 million inflow day. Small flows can sit beside large price moves when yields or derivatives drive the tape, as in our post on the 5.11% Treasury yield test.
The scale is still modest next to the earlier run. Our post on the $2.39 billion week of September 21 to 25 shows how quickly the sign can change, and our post on the following week's $82.9 million shows the slowdown that preceded this one.
What to watch
- Farside's row for Monday, October 12, 2026, to see whether the October 9 inflow holds or the outflows resume.
- The month-to-date total at Farside against zero. It stood at about -$386.3 million after October 9 (derived).
- Whether BTC holds the $81,000 to $82,000 area that QCP and Glassnode both flag.
- The Fed meeting on October 27 and 28, 2026, and the November 3 midterm elections, both flagged by QCP as key dates.
- Whether the Ether ETF outflow streak, about $641.3 million over eight sessions per The Coin Republic, extends on the next Farside print.
Bottom line
- US spot Bitcoin ETFs lost a net $707.9 million across October 7, 8 and 9, 2026, per Farside (derived sum).
- October 9 brought a $21.1 million inflow, led by IBIT at $22.4 million, after $244.1 million left on October 8.
- Month to date, Farside implies about -$386.3 million, against -$388.6 million at TFTC.
- QCP ties its upside case to renewed inflows, while Glassnode points to thin volume and a liquidation cluster near $81,700 to $83,300.